Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
