Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
